Hot FIFA ASEAN Cup standings: Does Vietnam still have a chance to reach the final?

Sitting in the auxiliary stands of Busan Asiad Stadium, I opened my yellowed paper notebook, where I had marked every minute of the match between Vietnam and Thailand. Beside me was a cup of coffee that had long gone cold. My hand trembled as I wrote the scrawled line: "Minute 10 — Sarach Yooyen long-range strike, 0-1." I read this line three times over, following the habit I set for myself after calling defender Kim Young-gwon by the wrong name at the 2026 World Cup. There was a familiar, heartbreaking feeling: Vietnam lost again at the decisive moments. Not because they were dominated, but because they lost at the exact moments a team with character must stand firm.

Group context and the numbers that cannot be ignored

The tournament the document calls the "FIFA ASEAN Cup 2026" is entering the group stage endgame. This is a Southeast Asian national-team competition where Vietnam has long been considered a leading contender alongside Thailand. But after two rounds, the situation has shifted in a way that has left many fans frowning. Thailand have claimed all 6 points from two matches, including a 2-0 victory over Vietnam itself. Vietnam have 3 points from their opening win against the Philippines — a match that, as the document describes, "caused many difficulties" for coach Kim Sang Sik's side.

The notable detail lies in the tiebreaker rules. The analytical document explicitly states that head-to-head is the No. 1 criterion when teams are level on points. What does this mean? It means that even if Vietnam beat Pakistan 10-0 in their final group match, and Thailand lose 0-5, the top spot still belongs to Thailand, because they beat Vietnam in the direct encounter. This is a harsh regulation, and I personally believe it creates confusion for a portion of the audience who still think Vietnam "still have a chance at first place" if they win big.

There is no such chance. First place is locked.

The current situation presents a harsh but clear reality: Vietnam's most realistic objective now is to secure second place, which means a ticket to the third-place match — if the tournament format is confirmed as described in the document, i.e., the group winner advances to the final and the runner-up contests the third-place match. I must admit that I need to verify this format myself, because it differs from the traditional ASEAN Championship structure I have followed for decades. But regardless of the format, the fact that Vietnam cannot top the group is unchangeable.

The problem lies at both edges of match time

Based on my experience following matches, there is a pattern I recognize in Vietnam under Kim Sang Sik: they are vulnerable at both ends of the match. The Thailand game is the clearest proof. In the 10th minute, Sarach Yooyen — a veteran midfielder of Thai football — unleashed a long-range shot to open the scoring. In the 90+3rd minute, Otton exploited Vietnam's high defensive line to seal the 2-0 win.

Two goals at two different moments, but the same root: loss of concentration early and tactical disarray late. I sat for a long time analyzing this. The 10th minute was a concentration error, but Sarach's long-range strike was nothing miraculous. It was the execution of an experienced player, and Vietnam's defense gave him far too much space. As for the 90+3rd minute, when Vietnam pushed forward seeking an equalizer, the defense left vast space behind. Otton simply ran onto it and finished. This is not a random accident. This is a systematic, repeatable error.

What is worth noting is that Vietnam did not play badly in general play. The document records that the team had a goal disallowed by VAR for offside and repeatedly wasted chances in front of Thailand's goal. From the perspective of someone outside the stadium, I can imagine the atmosphere in My Dinh if the match had been played in Hanoi: waves of humanity rising and falling with each missed chance. There were sighs. There were curses. There was applause mixed with impatience. Those sounds are the most honest data on community emotion, and we need to listen to them before making any judgment.

The difference lies in the silence between two passes

There is a question I asked myself when analyzing both teams' performances: why did Vietnam control the game better but lose? The answer, in my view, lies in game-state management. Thailand played a "mid-low block and counter" model — conceding territory, conceding the ball, but holding their defensive structure tightly and waiting for mistakes.

This is a model built for Thailand over many years by Mano Polking and later Masatada Ishii. They understand that in a cup match, efficiency matters more than possession statistics. Possession percentage, as I always tell young colleagues at the newsroom, is the most deceptive metric in football. You can have 65% possession and still lose 0-2 if your passes are just meaningless sideways balls in midfield.

Thailand scored in the 10th minute and the 90+3rd minute. That is a "high-efficiency, low-volume" model — one that tends to regress over time, but is extremely effective in a specific match. The problem is they did not need to do much. They just needed to do it right twice. Vietnam, with a disallowed goal and missed chances, did not do it right once.

I do not have xG or PPDA data to precisely quantify both teams' performances. The analytical document I read also acknowledges this. But from what was observable, it is reasonable to infer that Vietnam created more chances, but the quality of finishing in decisive moments and the ability to defend at key moments were the fatal weaknesses.

People talk a lot about the attack, but the problem is further back

There is a common misunderstanding I hear a lot on Vietnamese football forums after the Thailand defeat: the attack is weak, the strikers are poor, personnel changes are needed. I do not entirely agree. Tai Loc had a goal disallowed. Vietnam's forwards created chances. The problem is not that they cannot play.

The problem lies in the defensive structure when the team pushes high. In the 90+3rd minute, when Vietnam threw everyone forward seeking an equalizer, only two center-backs remained at the back. No defensive midfielder covering. No balance. Otton needed just one long pass and one sprint. This is what I call "naive trade-off" — pushing everyone forward to attack, forgetting that the opponent still has a sharp blade behind.

High pressing has never been wrong. It is just that I looked at it with eyes that had no stands. I wrote this line in my notebook back in 2026, when my analysis of Busan IPark's pressing was opposed by fans because I had not accounted for Kim Jin-kyu's injury. Eight years later, that lesson remains entirely valid. Vietnam presses high, contests fiercely, but when the opponent has enough character to withstand early pressure, the defensive structure behind will expose its weaknesses.

Personnel and psychological issues before the Pakistan match

Vietnam will face Pakistan at 16:00 on October 2 — according to the data in the document. Pakistan are not an easy opponent to beat as many assume. They just fought back from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with the Philippines. That is a performance showing spirit and resilience.

Meanwhile, the Philippines — the team that "caused many difficulties" for Vietnam in the opening match — continue to show they are no longer an easy touch as they were a decade ago. Southeast Asian football is changing. Lower-ranked teams are no longer "mobile points bags." This makes the Pakistan match a genuine trap, not a formality.

The pressure on Kim Sang Sik is high. A defeat to chief rival Thailand always prompts public questions about coaching ability. However, based on my observation, Vietnam's current problem is not dressing-room conflict. There is no information suggesting friction between coach and players. The problem lies in confidence in finishing and the ability to manage game state when trailing.

This is where the coach's role becomes important. Kim Sang Sik needs to convey a clear message to his players: the Pakistan match is not a match for pretty statistics, but a match to secure a place in the next round. A draw is enough to preserve second place, but a "play for a draw" mentality in football is always a double-edged sword.

Where are we in the regional picture?

I have lived in Busan for over twenty years, and I have witnessed Korean football go through many development cycles. One thing I learned: no position is permanent. Vietnam were once a leading Southeast Asian team, but that position needs to be maintained by concrete results, not memories of the past.

The current regional picture shows Thailand remain the benchmark. They beat Vietnam 2-0, won both group matches and have secured qualification. Vietnam are chasing in the lower group, with 3 points and a decisive match ahead. The Philippines and Pakistan show they can compete with any team in the region on a good day.

This is the harsh reality of Southeast Asian football: the region is becoming increasingly competitive, and Vietnam need concrete results to prove their standing. One defeat to Thailand is not a disaster. But if it repeats cyclically, that will be a much bigger problem than one tournament.

Distance as belonging

I remember 2026, when the K-League was suspended due to the pandemic, I was in Busan for 92 days unable to go to the stadium. I set up a Facebook group "Busan IPark — Days Away from the Pitch," writing 200 words every day about each player. The group reached 40,000 members. The day the league returned, I stood in the rain in an empty stand, watching players pass the ball to each other, tears mingling with rain.

I tell this story not for nostalgia. I tell it to say: distance is not a barrier. Distance is an opportunity to look again. Vietnam are in the distance between disappointment and hope. The Pakistan match is a chance to step out of that distance.

A win will not turn Vietnam back into title contenders. But it will keep the team in the game. And in football, being in the game is always more important than watching from outside.

What I will be tracking

When the Pakistan match takes place on October 2, I will sit in front of the screen in Busan with my notebook and pen. I will record every minute, every pass, every play. I will watch whether Kim Sang Sik changes his approach to the match. Whether Vietnam's defense holds concentration from the first minute. Whether the attack takes its chances or continues to waste them.

And I will listen to the stands. Because Busan taught me that the fans' hearts are the most honest measure, even if it breaks the writer's heart.

The beat keeper does not need to beat the drum loudly, only at the right time, in the right place, and with enough love for the craft to stand long.